The looming specter of a US-Iran war has the Arab world on edge, with allies fearing the worst. But why are these nations, hosting US bases and bracing for Iranian retaliation, so terrified? It's not just the potential for escalation; it's the realization that they might be caught in the crossfire.
The US military mobilization is massive, with over 100 air tankers in the CENTCOM theater, indicating an operation that could be more sustained than a one-off strike. This leaves regional observers with a grim sense of inevitability, as President Trump's actions have backed him into a corner. But while US planners focus on targets, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Iraq see only peril.
These countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Turkey, and Egypt, engage in intense diplomacy to prevent war. They fear becoming the frontline of Iranian retaliation and the aftermath of a regime collapse. As analyst Galip Dalay points out, Israel, a rising hegemon, stands to gain significantly from Iran's downfall, further complicating the situation.
The risk for Iraq, a predominantly Shi'a nation, is particularly high. The country, still fragile after decades of turmoil post-2003, could face political and social unrest. Smaller Shi'a groups might even attack American troops in defense of Tehran, while the main Shi'a political forces view a US-Iran conflict as an existential threat to their sovereignty.
Tehran also wants Iraq to remain stable, needing a functional neighbor for trade and electricity. The Gulf faces multiple dangers. Firstly, Iran has marked US bases as legitimate targets, and a new campaign could see facilities in Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain under fire. Iranian officials hint at a harsher response than the 2025 strike on Al Udeid Air Base.
This threat is real; the 2019 strike on Saudi oil facilities proved Iran's capability. With nothing to lose, Iran might target countries hosting US bases. Even if Gulf states avoid direct strikes, they face economic fallout. Their efforts to diversify and attract investment could be shattered by the war's specter.
A refugee crisis looms, with Iran's Bandar Abbas port close to Dubai. Internal collapse or economic devastation could send waves of refugees to the UAE. The Strait of Hormuz is another flashpoint. Iranian officials warn of all options, including blocking the strait, which could skyrocket insurance premiums and global oil prices, impacting Trump's economic promises.
The ultimate fear is Iran pursuing nuclear weaponization, a scenario the war aims to prevent. Without a full US and Israel occupation, Iran's expertise could lead to a nuclear arms race, forcing GCC countries to seek their own deterrents. This destabilization is why Saudi Arabia and the UAE refuse to support an attack on Iran, advocating for diplomacy.
Despite Iran's concessions on the nuclear issue, Trump seems to demand total capitulation, including on ballistic missiles, a red line for Iran. The buildup continues, causing anxiety across the Middle East. The Gulf allies' pleas for peace should not be ignored, as the consequences of war could be catastrophic for all involved.
